* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 07/29/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 40 48 57 63 68 72 75 76 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 40 48 57 63 68 72 75 76 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 27 33 40 46 52 58 64 69 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 9 7 3 2 5 2 9 11 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -3 -4 -1 3 4 2 -1 0 -8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 42 68 72 64 118 236 258 245 234 264 258 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 137 136 132 134 139 143 146 146 148 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 139 139 137 136 132 134 138 142 145 143 145 144 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 74 74 71 69 60 63 57 54 56 55 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 58 49 39 31 5 10 13 30 36 49 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 49 64 78 73 39 64 39 64 47 64 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 -1 -2 -3 0 1 3 5 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1242 1223 1206 1155 1112 1061 1026 989 969 817 662 621 424 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.6 8.8 9.4 9.9 11.2 12.5 13.5 14.2 14.7 15.4 16.2 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 39.5 40.4 41.3 42.2 43.0 44.9 47.1 49.6 52.0 54.6 57.1 59.5 61.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 10 10 11 12 13 12 12 13 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 44 43 39 39 38 33 39 53 68 75 67 75 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 28. 37. 43. 48. 52. 55. 56. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 07/29/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 07/29/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 07/29/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)