* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL042011 07/29/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 54 56 57 60 61 64 65 64 62 61 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 54 47 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 50 53 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 14 13 15 13 6 7 5 11 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 3 0 -4 0 -2 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 358 15 29 26 33 67 60 96 69 133 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.7 28.6 29.2 29.1 28.3 26.5 24.5 22.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 149 143 136 133 146 155 152 138 116 99 87 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 135 129 121 119 130 136 128 114 97 84 76 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 14 13 12 12 12 10 11 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 56 55 51 51 55 54 53 51 45 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -22 0 -9 -11 -22 -21 -42 -29 -42 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 1 9 6 12 -1 12 -8 15 -5 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -14 -19 -11 -11 -3 -1 10 -10 -1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 428 301 182 82 -21 -286 -531 -587 -623 -719 -748 -829 N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.6 26.1 26.7 27.2 28.0 29.1 29.9 30.6 31.6 32.5 33.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.0 94.2 95.4 96.5 97.6 100.2 102.5 104.7 104.9 104.4 104.8 104.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 12 12 11 7 4 5 5 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 58 47 33 8 12 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 15. 16. 19. 20. 19. 17. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042011 DON 07/29/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042011 DON 07/29/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042011 DON 07/29/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)