* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 07/29/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 44 55 67 80 88 98 101 105 107 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 44 55 67 80 88 98 101 105 107 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 40 50 62 78 97 111 117 116 112 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 8 6 1 3 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 -1 3 3 0 -1 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 63 70 67 65 130 55 78 63 321 303 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 137 135 135 141 145 147 148 149 151 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 141 140 138 136 137 143 147 148 148 148 148 146 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 71 69 68 66 63 64 60 59 65 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 13 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 56 44 39 20 4 11 23 32 41 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 58 72 69 50 56 71 54 45 64 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 -3 -3 -4 0 0 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1192 1143 1070 1015 970 905 839 814 688 466 372 476 246 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.6 10.0 11.1 12.1 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.1 15.0 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 41.0 42.0 42.9 43.9 44.8 47.1 49.8 52.6 55.2 57.9 60.4 62.7 64.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 10 10 11 13 14 13 13 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 43 41 42 41 40 39 53 69 71 80 90 80 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 436 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 9. 10. 9. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 30. 42. 55. 63. 73. 76. 80. 82. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 07/29/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 07/29/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 07/29/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)