* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 07/29/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 55 62 69 74 75 76 74 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 55 62 69 74 75 76 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 45 52 58 66 74 80 84 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 4 4 3 4 4 1 4 10 17 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 0 2 2 0 0 -3 -7 -7 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 60 65 100 151 215 191 189 244 247 253 287 286 292 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 135 133 132 133 139 143 146 146 146 150 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 136 134 133 133 138 141 145 145 144 147 146 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 67 63 66 62 62 62 62 58 65 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 11 12 12 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 41 31 26 13 1 9 7 27 39 49 43 32 16 200 MB DIV 60 80 79 56 44 80 69 68 52 97 76 82 51 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 2 1 4 1 3 4 11 LAND (KM) 1281 1221 1154 1092 1043 965 898 860 831 641 548 536 239 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.6 10.0 10.5 10.9 11.8 12.5 13.1 13.6 14.3 15.2 16.3 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 40.6 41.6 42.6 43.7 44.8 47.1 49.4 51.7 53.9 56.3 58.7 61.1 63.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 36 35 34 41 49 66 73 80 76 37 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 14. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 30. 37. 44. 49. 50. 51. 49. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 07/29/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 07/29/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 07/29/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)