* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL042011 07/29/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 53 58 59 61 62 62 60 60 59 V (KT) LAND 45 47 40 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 41 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 14 12 6 11 12 17 12 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -4 -1 -2 -2 1 -2 -3 2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 38 37 24 42 66 32 71 55 121 123 129 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.8 27.7 28.2 28.7 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.4 27.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 134 133 140 147 155 157 153 148 139 128 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 119 119 125 130 135 132 124 121 113 105 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 12 11 12 12 12 10 11 8 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 55 51 56 55 54 54 50 46 46 44 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 7 6 5 4 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -7 -17 -18 -22 -19 -35 -22 -45 -13 -18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 8 7 -3 4 7 -12 11 -6 14 -7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -15 -9 -16 -15 -6 -4 12 5 -1 -7 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 168 67 -45 -177 -309 -542 -532 -514 -566 -550 -585 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.0 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.8 29.2 29.5 30.0 30.5 31.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.7 97.8 99.1 100.4 102.7 104.8 105.3 105.1 105.7 105.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 11 10 6 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 9 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 14. 16. 17. 17. 15. 15. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042011 DON 07/29/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042011 DON 07/29/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042011 DON 07/29/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)