* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952011 07/29/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 35 40 46 50 54 53 50 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 35 40 46 50 54 53 50 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 30 31 33 35 37 42 48 52 53 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 20 19 21 21 20 11 5 3 5 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 1 0 0 -4 -4 -1 -2 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 87 72 73 82 78 82 74 66 20 27 249 214 192 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 143 142 140 141 143 142 138 134 129 123 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 51 51 51 52 49 50 47 46 45 43 42 40 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -5 -7 -7 -2 11 20 31 33 38 33 31 28 200 MB DIV 7 0 10 2 -6 22 0 27 22 16 -11 -5 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1358 1381 1406 1432 1460 1547 1656 1769 1862 1956 2057 2158 2247 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.7 13.1 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.6 117.1 117.7 118.3 119.6 121.1 122.7 124.2 125.6 127.1 128.7 130.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 24 24 16 14 24 22 27 22 18 14 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 15. 16. 12. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 29. 28. 25. 24. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952011 INVEST 07/29/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952011 INVEST 07/29/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##