* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL042011 07/30/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 40 45 50 54 57 59 62 63 63 V (KT) LAND 35 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 14 13 10 3 12 10 13 10 12 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -3 -3 -4 -1 -2 0 -3 -5 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 13 55 79 340 38 74 66 111 112 152 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 28.3 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.4 27.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 142 150 154 159 157 153 146 139 127 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 119 126 134 137 139 131 124 119 113 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 11 14 11 12 9 12 7 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 54 57 58 56 53 51 48 48 45 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -15 -26 -23 -17 -26 -10 -16 -15 -3 14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 1 -10 1 2 6 10 3 1 12 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -9 -11 -3 1 2 1 5 -2 -1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 39 -79 -197 -338 -478 -542 -397 -403 -475 -460 -510 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.5 29.1 29.5 29.8 30.2 30.6 31.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.0 98.2 99.3 100.7 102.1 104.6 106.9 107.0 106.4 106.9 106.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 12 11 6 2 2 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 27. 28. 28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042011 DON 07/30/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.7 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042011 DON 07/30/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042011 DON 07/30/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)