* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 07/30/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 34 38 47 56 62 68 74 75 74 74 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 34 38 47 56 62 68 74 75 74 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 51 57 62 66 68 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 1 5 2 5 8 12 17 16 19 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 3 3 1 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 -5 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 142 173 175 40 162 204 216 245 243 269 258 272 251 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 133 133 135 140 144 146 146 146 150 150 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 134 133 133 135 139 142 144 143 144 147 145 142 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 67 65 61 62 63 59 59 53 57 54 55 54 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 13 16 15 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 36 19 7 6 13 9 18 13 25 19 3 -6 -8 200 MB DIV 88 66 45 75 94 62 50 33 61 85 80 41 55 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -3 2 7 10 9 LAND (KM) 1110 1060 1024 993 962 920 915 828 659 579 499 203 122 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.9 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.6 16.7 18.0 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 43.1 44.2 45.2 46.3 47.4 49.8 52.0 54.2 56.5 58.9 61.3 63.8 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 38 36 35 37 43 54 66 76 76 75 34 70 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 12. 11. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 13. 22. 31. 37. 43. 49. 50. 49. 49. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 07/30/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 07/30/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 07/30/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)