* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952011 07/30/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 41 45 45 45 44 43 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 41 45 45 45 44 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 33 37 40 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 21 20 21 21 17 16 8 2 4 6 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 1 0 -3 -4 -4 -6 -4 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 85 84 89 82 82 86 74 53 345 229 201 194 181 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.3 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 144 142 141 139 140 142 139 135 130 126 120 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 48 48 49 48 49 49 47 48 45 44 40 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -2 -2 2 7 17 24 35 38 41 34 38 21 200 MB DIV 11 13 8 -2 15 26 10 26 13 4 -12 10 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1313 1340 1369 1403 1440 1543 1656 1753 1850 1963 2076 2177 2276 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.5 117.1 117.8 118.4 119.9 121.5 123.0 124.5 126.1 127.7 129.2 131.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 40 35 16 20 20 17 26 19 15 9 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 773 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 13. 10. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952011 INVEST 07/30/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952011 INVEST 07/30/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##