* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL042011 07/30/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 21 18 17 18 20 26 31 37 42 48 53 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 12 10 3 8 9 12 13 10 13 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -1 -5 -4 2 -2 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 17 46 82 327 27 67 32 103 124 156 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 28.4 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 143 150 153 155 157 152 149 145 135 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 128 132 134 135 132 124 122 118 110 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 14 12 12 11 11 8 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 54 54 53 55 54 51 44 42 41 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -20 -30 -30 -13 -34 -15 -41 -6 -18 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -6 0 -4 3 -12 15 -8 10 -6 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -18 -16 -2 -1 -8 9 6 1 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -78 -213 -349 -459 -569 -494 -493 -530 -517 -545 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.8 30.2 30.7 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.1 99.5 100.8 101.9 103.0 105.2 105.5 105.4 105.9 105.9 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 6 2 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. -10. -7. -3. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -7. -5. 1. 6. 12. 17. 23. 28. 30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042011 DON 07/30/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042011 DON 07/30/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042011 DON 07/30/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)