* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 07/30/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 47 59 67 76 82 86 92 90 88 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 47 59 67 76 82 86 92 90 85 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 51 62 75 84 89 93 95 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 7 4 0 4 6 8 3 7 5 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -3 -4 -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 169 164 155 168 163 41 223 263 267 353 247 290 276 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 136 139 142 146 146 145 147 148 150 149 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 137 140 142 145 142 141 142 143 146 144 140 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 59 54 58 58 58 53 56 53 57 58 58 52 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 8 9 10 10 12 14 12 17 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 36 19 13 20 20 19 12 20 25 27 17 12 8 200 MB DIV 34 17 41 76 105 57 41 59 68 66 57 54 19 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 3 7 12 LAND (KM) 970 932 897 876 863 880 704 543 446 478 371 123 33 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.5 15.1 16.0 17.3 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 46.0 47.2 48.3 49.6 50.8 53.3 55.4 57.5 59.4 61.3 63.1 65.0 66.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 12 10 10 9 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 37 40 44 50 61 70 76 75 86 75 83 73 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 2. 6. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 29. 37. 46. 52. 56. 62. 60. 58. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 07/30/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 07/30/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 07/30/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)