* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952011 07/30/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 33 37 38 38 37 34 33 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 33 37 38 38 37 34 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 27 30 33 34 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 18 20 20 18 12 8 1 5 10 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 3 1 -3 -4 -5 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 90 90 86 79 82 68 66 47 310 212 204 205 198 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 141 140 140 141 141 137 133 128 123 117 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 49 50 47 47 48 47 49 46 44 41 42 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 5 5 6 7 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 1 2 7 13 21 25 35 33 41 33 33 29 30 200 MB DIV 15 19 4 19 41 32 33 4 -7 -18 -14 -2 -16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 -1 -2 0 2 LAND (KM) 1340 1374 1411 1452 1495 1602 1709 1801 1909 2026 2135 2240 2369 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.6 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.2 117.8 118.5 119.1 120.6 122.2 123.7 125.3 126.9 128.5 130.3 132.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 40 31 16 17 27 19 24 23 17 13 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 13. 10. 8. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 13. 13. 12. 9. 8. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952011 INVEST 07/30/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952011 INVEST 07/30/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##