* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 07/30/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 38 43 50 59 69 72 79 83 84 82 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 38 43 50 59 69 72 79 83 77 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 37 43 50 57 63 68 73 69 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 8 8 6 1 6 8 13 11 13 16 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -3 -4 0 0 -2 -3 3 -6 -2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 169 158 131 102 236 200 274 251 253 258 274 224 247 SST (C) 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 143 144 147 146 146 147 149 150 150 149 147 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 146 146 148 146 144 144 143 144 145 142 138 137 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 54 54 55 49 50 54 48 47 47 47 45 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 10 12 15 14 17 18 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 30 30 30 26 26 22 11 25 21 32 28 29 23 200 MB DIV 34 52 66 103 83 52 24 52 44 78 60 65 33 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 0 -5 0 -1 2 -1 6 9 12 LAND (KM) 873 854 846 866 794 636 547 528 332 133 31 5 11 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 45 57 67 69 76 76 72 72 77 74 61 2 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 19 CX,CY: -16/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 13. 20. 29. 39. 42. 49. 53. 54. 52. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 07/30/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 07/30/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 07/30/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)