* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962011 07/30/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 46 54 59 63 62 67 69 72 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 46 54 59 63 62 67 69 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 47 51 56 61 65 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 11 10 11 21 21 23 22 22 24 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -1 -1 0 -4 -6 -8 -10 -7 -7 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 21 33 39 45 72 73 82 77 83 78 69 61 61 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 146 146 145 146 147 146 145 144 143 142 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 80 81 80 80 79 82 79 81 77 79 79 79 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 13 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR 59 58 57 59 61 47 52 37 33 14 9 -2 -4 200 MB DIV 61 58 43 68 47 41 50 58 67 57 62 66 61 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -5 -4 -3 -8 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 598 594 591 587 598 646 696 726 793 844 888 910 900 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.6 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 97.2 97.9 98.6 99.5 100.3 102.1 103.9 105.5 107.0 108.2 109.1 109.8 110.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 19 21 12 8 13 7 6 7 8 9 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 25. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 4. 2. 5. 5. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 29. 34. 38. 37. 42. 44. 47. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962011 INVEST 07/30/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962011 INVEST 07/30/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##