* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 07/31/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 54 64 72 77 84 83 80 80 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 54 64 72 77 84 81 78 78 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 39 47 54 61 68 75 78 80 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 4 5 6 5 6 8 14 11 10 12 18 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -5 -2 0 -6 -4 -3 0 1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 160 136 145 171 178 236 249 294 273 290 239 274 210 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 145 146 146 146 147 149 151 149 147 146 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 145 145 145 145 143 144 145 146 143 140 136 135 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.3 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 59 54 55 53 55 47 47 51 52 55 55 57 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 10 13 14 13 17 15 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 24 20 22 27 26 14 23 15 19 14 6 -9 -1 200 MB DIV 55 67 64 54 47 43 63 61 83 69 51 19 54 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -3 1 0 7 0 15 5 LAND (KM) 910 890 893 866 767 614 525 490 268 77 53 69 211 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 53 60 66 74 77 72 74 71 73 73 62 58 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 6. 4. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 34. 42. 47. 54. 53. 50. 50. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 07/31/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 07/31/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 07/31/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)