* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962011 07/31/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 45 51 60 65 69 71 76 72 75 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 45 51 60 65 69 71 76 72 75 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 37 39 43 48 52 56 60 65 68 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 13 15 14 21 22 23 16 22 15 21 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 0 0 -5 -7 -11 -6 -10 -1 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 32 39 41 49 56 78 84 78 79 68 56 47 35 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 145 145 146 147 147 145 144 142 141 138 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -52.6 -52.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 82 81 80 78 81 84 80 80 80 79 77 76 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 12 13 14 14 16 18 15 19 850 MB ENV VOR 52 54 55 62 57 54 51 44 32 24 18 11 4 200 MB DIV 61 49 54 53 73 62 79 54 86 63 63 60 60 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -7 -5 -4 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 622 617 624 640 657 686 702 759 817 859 882 896 868 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.7 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 98.5 99.4 100.2 101.1 101.9 103.7 105.4 106.9 108.2 109.1 109.8 110.4 110.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 13 21 18 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 12. 8. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 21. 30. 35. 39. 41. 46. 42. 45. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962011 INVEST 07/31/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962011 INVEST 07/31/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##