* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 07/31/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 43 52 63 72 80 84 86 86 85 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 39 43 52 63 72 80 82 84 84 83 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 40 47 54 61 70 74 78 79 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 4 6 7 8 6 16 12 14 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -5 1 0 -4 -7 0 -5 -2 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 137 124 92 180 236 283 279 290 279 272 246 232 210 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 147 146 146 147 149 151 149 149 146 147 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 148 146 145 144 145 148 144 142 137 136 133 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 13 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 58 58 59 54 53 55 51 50 46 47 53 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 11 12 13 14 14 15 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 29 31 23 26 25 20 17 16 7 0 8 200 MB DIV 57 57 57 54 38 64 54 70 80 67 73 46 32 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 -2 -3 -5 -2 0 -1 3 10 15 2 LAND (KM) 856 858 825 718 624 504 500 362 108 31 44 133 233 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.3 16.0 17.1 18.3 19.7 21.0 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 51.2 52.6 54.0 55.3 56.5 58.8 61.0 63.2 65.5 67.5 69.2 71.0 72.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 12 12 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 63 67 75 77 77 70 73 81 74 60 48 58 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 22. 33. 42. 50. 54. 56. 56. 55. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 07/31/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 07/31/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 07/31/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)