* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962011 07/31/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 53 62 69 69 69 70 72 68 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 53 62 69 69 69 70 72 68 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 40 45 51 55 57 58 58 57 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 11 11 11 19 20 14 16 14 13 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 0 -2 -6 -3 -1 0 1 -2 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 38 36 47 64 86 89 95 85 69 53 50 56 22 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.4 26.2 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 145 145 146 147 143 139 137 134 127 125 122 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.2 -53.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 -52.3 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 82 80 80 81 83 80 80 73 73 74 73 67 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 12 14 16 15 16 17 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 52 52 52 50 48 45 47 39 26 19 33 42 46 200 MB DIV 52 53 52 64 54 60 65 78 69 75 43 52 30 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -5 -6 -7 -2 -3 -5 -8 -5 -9 -5 -15 LAND (KM) 630 586 544 516 489 504 448 465 512 544 614 660 704 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.2 11.7 12.2 12.6 13.1 14.4 15.1 15.3 15.8 16.7 17.2 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 99.8 100.2 100.5 100.9 101.3 102.8 104.7 106.2 107.3 108.5 110.1 111.8 113.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 6 6 7 9 10 7 6 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 8 5 5 6 13 30 8 12 12 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 418 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 8. 6. 7. 10. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 23. 32. 39. 39. 39. 40. 42. 38. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962011 INVEST 07/31/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962011 INVEST 07/31/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##