* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 07/31/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 57 66 74 82 83 82 83 81 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 57 66 74 82 70 76 77 76 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 34 36 39 46 53 61 69 63 73 74 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 6 6 9 8 11 9 12 11 12 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -1 -4 -6 -3 -4 -3 0 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 172 113 147 228 272 269 278 249 285 241 287 266 344 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 146 146 146 146 149 150 149 149 147 145 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 144 145 145 145 144 145 144 142 142 139 134 133 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 59 59 60 56 51 53 53 54 51 55 54 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 12 12 14 17 15 14 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 11 22 24 19 16 23 13 11 9 8 5 1 -33 200 MB DIV 56 60 67 49 54 67 66 97 71 70 26 4 13 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -5 -3 -4 -2 -2 4 3 8 12 6 LAND (KM) 877 878 839 740 654 533 544 325 116 -11 34 147 344 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 62 67 75 77 77 70 71 74 72 36 53 59 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 27. 36. 44. 52. 53. 52. 53. 51. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 07/31/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 07/31/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 07/31/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)