* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052011 07/31/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 45 53 60 63 65 66 66 64 63 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 45 53 60 63 65 66 66 64 63 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 43 48 54 58 60 59 58 56 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 15 15 16 20 14 14 10 13 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -4 -5 -6 -9 -3 -3 0 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 27 39 59 78 83 92 99 96 86 89 72 61 42 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.7 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 146 147 147 144 139 132 128 124 119 108 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -52.6 -52.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 82 81 81 83 83 81 80 76 74 71 70 67 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 11 12 12 13 14 14 16 17 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 45 46 40 42 44 58 51 34 36 40 50 51 50 200 MB DIV 62 37 21 42 60 83 63 71 49 18 11 21 12 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -6 -6 -6 -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 -2 -8 -5 LAND (KM) 614 599 585 575 565 578 590 632 694 763 722 718 751 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.6 12.1 12.5 13.2 14.0 14.7 15.5 16.2 17.0 17.7 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 100.2 100.7 101.2 102.0 102.8 104.9 106.6 108.4 110.1 111.6 112.9 114.1 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 11 31 18 11 8 4 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. 29. 28. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 FIVE 07/31/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 FIVE 07/31/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##