* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 07/31/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 47 56 65 72 75 78 77 75 75 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 47 56 65 72 75 72 70 69 68 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 34 36 39 46 54 60 65 64 66 67 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 5 5 8 6 12 16 11 15 13 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -5 -7 -4 -4 -3 -3 1 1 2 5 SHEAR DIR 100 146 186 276 259 271 275 263 272 269 301 306 7 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 146 146 146 148 149 150 149 147 145 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 145 145 145 144 143 145 141 138 135 136 136 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.3 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 60 63 59 52 55 52 55 56 54 56 60 57 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 14 14 16 15 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 20 24 17 13 17 17 11 2 12 2 9 -13 -20 200 MB DIV 71 69 49 49 68 61 67 70 84 54 45 29 18 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -1 -2 -4 0 0 4 9 13 13 4 LAND (KM) 876 837 741 648 575 522 453 226 22 61 76 200 349 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 13 12 10 11 10 10 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 71 75 77 78 71 84 70 71 73 61 59 48 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 26. 35. 42. 45. 48. 47. 45. 45. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 07/31/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 07/31/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 07/31/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)