* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 07/31/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 56 60 70 73 78 80 76 71 73 65 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 56 60 70 73 78 80 76 71 73 65 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 49 53 56 62 66 69 69 68 65 61 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 15 17 18 19 16 11 8 12 7 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -1 4 2 3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 57 50 69 77 72 69 68 38 32 42 53 46 63 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.9 26.5 25.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 147 147 147 144 139 134 132 128 119 106 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 76 79 81 83 81 82 79 78 75 74 73 72 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 14 15 16 18 17 19 20 20 19 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 38 26 21 26 29 22 27 12 17 18 29 22 14 200 MB DIV 34 30 51 70 74 93 94 67 63 58 58 44 50 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -6 -4 -6 -7 -5 -8 -10 -12 -6 -7 -8 LAND (KM) 643 651 659 655 653 653 699 740 813 845 825 825 860 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.9 12.3 13.1 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 100.9 101.7 102.4 103.4 104.3 106.2 107.9 109.5 111.1 112.6 114.0 115.2 116.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 26 17 8 11 11 8 12 11 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 5. 8. 10. 9. 8. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 20. 30. 33. 38. 40. 36. 31. 33. 25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 07/31/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 07/31/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##