* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 08/01/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 45 57 67 72 75 76 81 83 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 45 57 67 72 46 48 52 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 25 26 28 33 38 44 50 37 42 47 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 4 4 6 8 13 13 14 15 13 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -2 -2 -2 0 -4 -2 -3 2 -2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 119 136 143 228 261 299 266 283 230 259 176 139 90 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 148 149 149 152 150 149 147 147 152 153 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 148 147 148 148 149 146 142 138 140 142 139 138 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -51.2 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 11 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 62 57 55 53 55 49 50 45 47 48 51 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 11 13 15 15 14 13 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 39 32 27 31 39 32 30 23 34 24 31 5 2 200 MB DIV 67 53 56 72 62 50 72 61 37 12 32 5 7 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 -6 -2 1 1 1 3 2 3 2 LAND (KM) 562 474 416 398 424 380 200 124 41 -66 91 123 198 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 11 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 76 73 70 88 75 81 73 77 80 80 69 71 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 20. 32. 42. 47. 50. 51. 56. 58. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 08/01/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 08/01/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 08/01/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)