* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 08/01/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 33 40 49 57 58 62 64 68 68 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 33 40 49 57 58 62 64 68 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 25 27 30 34 38 42 45 49 54 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 3 6 6 11 19 12 18 11 11 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 -1 -2 0 -1 -5 0 -1 0 -4 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 177 196 159 199 253 293 295 276 267 293 294 17 9 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 148 148 149 151 150 149 147 147 147 149 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 146 145 146 146 145 141 139 138 135 133 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 60 55 59 59 53 56 55 56 54 57 59 60 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 9 10 8 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 20 12 21 33 28 14 4 9 2 6 -28 -38 -70 200 MB DIV 47 48 73 76 65 55 59 51 52 42 7 11 4 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -4 -1 -3 -4 -3 -1 0 -3 0 -3 LAND (KM) 582 509 464 464 501 322 122 42 11 122 288 367 494 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 79 71 70 88 75 77 73 65 21 64 62 62 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -2. -4. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 15. 24. 32. 33. 37. 39. 43. 43. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 08/01/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 08/01/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 08/01/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)