* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/01/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 55 57 64 67 71 72 71 69 59 50 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 55 57 64 67 71 72 71 69 59 50 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 50 52 54 58 60 62 62 62 61 56 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 18 19 20 22 17 15 20 17 12 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -2 -1 -4 -1 0 -4 0 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 59 67 62 67 67 57 54 46 56 55 86 119 101 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.1 25.8 24.2 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 147 148 145 142 139 138 135 121 104 92 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 82 80 80 80 80 80 77 77 78 77 79 75 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 18 20 19 20 20 21 23 24 25 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 17 20 20 14 16 30 17 21 19 30 32 32 19 200 MB DIV 39 61 80 114 103 100 63 94 55 55 44 40 50 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -6 -6 -9 -9 -14 -8 -7 -7 -8 -3 0 LAND (KM) 672 684 694 696 712 773 840 919 971 969 1013 1028 1021 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.7 104.6 105.5 106.4 108.4 110.2 111.7 113.2 114.9 116.9 118.4 119.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 10 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 26 10 6 7 9 11 12 20 21 16 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 19. 22. 26. 27. 26. 24. 14. 5. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/01/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/01/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##