* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 08/01/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 56 64 70 73 75 76 79 79 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 56 64 59 54 56 57 60 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 49 57 55 51 56 60 67 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 6 5 6 9 15 13 16 7 9 8 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -5 -2 0 1 2 -5 1 3 SHEAR DIR 151 125 196 250 297 302 291 269 288 231 322 13 360 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 146 148 149 151 151 148 148 151 157 162 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 145 144 146 147 148 147 144 142 141 144 145 141 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.3 -52.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 59 60 62 58 59 59 54 53 55 56 58 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 13 14 13 14 13 13 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 19 29 37 30 23 17 5 10 6 6 -6 -5 -31 200 MB DIV 60 86 98 92 50 79 46 58 24 32 -13 26 -5 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -4 0 -3 -3 1 0 2 -1 -5 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 537 471 438 450 499 279 80 -22 44 197 316 375 213 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 12 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 79 63 81 89 73 75 72 75 32 64 38 33 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 26. 34. 40. 43. 45. 46. 49. 49. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 08/01/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 08/01/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 08/01/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)