* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/01/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 70 75 79 83 87 88 84 77 66 55 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 70 75 79 83 87 88 84 77 66 55 V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 66 70 74 78 79 79 77 73 67 58 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 16 16 13 18 11 12 8 7 12 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -2 0 1 -6 1 -3 5 4 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 65 75 66 64 55 54 56 49 68 55 87 123 118 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.4 25.1 23.8 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 152 151 147 143 139 136 127 113 99 89 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -50.7 -51.2 -50.3 -51.1 -50.6 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 83 80 79 79 81 77 80 79 79 77 76 78 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 19 19 20 20 20 23 27 27 26 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 19 22 19 19 31 25 21 27 36 42 34 31 11 200 MB DIV 47 64 89 104 120 104 62 66 57 48 43 61 43 700-850 TADV -8 -5 -6 -10 -8 -9 -8 -7 -4 -7 -6 -1 0 LAND (KM) 637 644 651 676 712 764 859 890 896 922 964 986 1007 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.6 105.6 106.7 107.8 109.6 111.4 113.0 114.6 116.1 117.5 118.8 119.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 10 11 12 9 15 15 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 15. 15. 14. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 28. 32. 33. 29. 22. 11. 0. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/01/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/01/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##