* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/01/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 77 79 83 85 88 85 82 71 59 48 39 V (KT) LAND 65 72 77 79 83 85 88 85 82 71 59 48 39 V (KT) LGE mod 65 73 79 83 85 86 83 79 73 66 57 48 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 19 17 19 18 17 17 12 12 11 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 0 -2 0 0 1 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 63 64 51 61 63 67 40 63 57 79 118 115 119 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.6 25.3 23.9 22.9 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 150 149 143 139 137 129 115 100 89 83 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 79 81 82 76 79 80 75 73 74 75 76 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 20 17 20 20 24 24 25 23 20 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 24 24 23 36 34 20 31 30 39 36 38 29 10 200 MB DIV 56 76 91 119 67 50 63 50 49 49 54 49 29 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -15 -4 -7 -13 -11 -9 -7 -6 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 623 629 646 680 705 785 851 839 864 912 928 944 954 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.2 17.0 17.8 18.5 19.2 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.7 106.6 107.7 108.7 110.6 112.1 113.7 115.4 116.9 118.2 119.2 120.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 10 9 8 9 9 8 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 11 11 10 14 10 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -4. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. 1. 2. 7. 7. 9. 7. 3. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 14. 18. 20. 23. 20. 17. 6. -6. -17. -26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/01/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/01/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##