* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/02/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 50 58 63 62 69 70 73 77 75 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 50 58 42 40 47 48 51 55 53 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 52 40 39 41 44 49 58 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 5 10 9 15 20 19 19 5 12 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 2 4 2 0 0 0 -1 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 153 228 291 289 267 263 250 265 190 215 132 85 64 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.6 30.0 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 151 151 149 149 152 156 162 169 168 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 150 149 149 147 142 140 143 145 149 150 145 140 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.0 -50.7 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 54 50 52 49 48 45 47 49 52 52 51 51 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 14 15 11 16 14 15 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 36 35 29 23 18 13 16 7 40 19 13 -19 -24 200 MB DIV 53 61 29 54 74 43 29 26 40 -2 22 28 -10 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 -3 0 3 0 0 5 2 0 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 495 365 251 166 110 63 -80 44 99 180 231 100 35 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.8 19.0 20.3 21.7 23.2 24.7 25.7 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 62.2 63.5 64.8 66.1 67.3 69.6 71.3 73.1 75.0 76.7 78.2 79.2 79.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 12 11 10 11 11 10 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 72 81 76 70 74 87 81 48 72 40 2 58 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 28. 27. 34. 35. 38. 42. 40. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/02/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/02/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/02/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)