* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/02/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 73 78 82 83 83 83 75 60 50 41 28 V (KT) LAND 65 70 73 78 82 83 83 83 75 60 50 41 28 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 73 76 78 79 77 73 66 58 49 41 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 14 17 18 20 13 15 15 16 12 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 1 -4 -2 3 0 -2 -1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 64 47 59 69 60 62 46 44 58 95 113 99 117 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.4 26.8 25.7 24.4 23.3 22.6 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 147 145 140 137 131 119 106 94 86 80 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -50.6 -51.0 -50.5 -51.4 -50.9 -51.7 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 77 80 76 76 79 77 78 75 78 79 76 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 19 22 24 22 24 26 25 21 21 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 23 26 34 35 27 27 31 26 31 21 27 2 4 200 MB DIV 72 83 94 74 71 48 48 38 5 47 62 24 30 700-850 TADV -10 -14 -8 -8 -10 -11 -8 -7 -6 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 668 692 720 740 775 862 863 884 928 971 1028 1039 1005 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.4 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.0 18.7 19.6 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.3 108.3 109.3 110.2 112.1 113.8 115.3 116.7 118.2 119.8 120.7 121.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 11 10 11 11 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -3. -7. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 9. 8. 3. 3. 1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 13. 17. 18. 18. 18. 10. -5. -15. -24. -37. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/02/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/02/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##