* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/02/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 45 49 52 55 58 62 65 66 66 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 45 49 34 40 43 47 50 51 51 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 40 43 47 34 38 40 44 51 60 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 8 10 11 16 15 24 14 12 10 6 15 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 3 4 SHEAR DIR 152 297 307 282 287 275 268 281 277 113 171 125 147 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 151 151 149 147 150 154 159 165 167 163 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 147 146 144 141 142 145 147 149 147 142 135 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 53 53 52 51 51 53 55 56 55 57 53 59 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 21 12 9 3 1 -7 -6 -2 -19 -41 -47 -65 200 MB DIV 60 16 29 35 44 39 19 17 -3 0 13 5 -5 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -4 -3 -4 -11 0 -3 -1 1 LAND (KM) 370 265 200 137 113 3 -27 93 178 254 173 62 19 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.7 17.2 18.2 19.5 21.0 22.7 24.3 25.5 26.7 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 63.6 64.8 66.0 67.1 68.2 70.4 72.2 74.0 75.8 77.3 78.5 79.5 80.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 11 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 81 76 73 73 78 79 78 68 57 67 3 58 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 20. 23. 27. 30. 31. 31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/02/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/02/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/02/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)