* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/02/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 81 84 86 89 87 84 70 59 48 34 23 V (KT) LAND 75 78 81 84 86 89 87 84 70 59 48 34 23 V (KT) LGE mod 75 79 81 83 84 83 80 74 66 55 45 37 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 14 16 19 13 11 13 21 18 14 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -1 0 4 3 -2 2 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 46 52 67 72 81 64 63 55 67 86 110 101 118 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.2 24.9 23.7 23.1 22.4 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 146 144 142 139 134 125 111 99 92 85 78 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.1 -51.5 -50.6 -50.4 -50.4 -50.5 -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 79 75 75 76 75 76 76 75 79 79 75 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 23 21 24 25 27 27 28 24 23 22 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 23 34 34 25 25 40 32 39 31 25 10 -2 -3 200 MB DIV 72 91 76 80 68 55 29 37 32 27 40 23 9 700-850 TADV -14 -12 -10 -9 -9 -8 -7 -9 -5 -4 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 698 714 740 776 822 845 837 898 982 1037 1086 1107 1062 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.8 16.6 17.2 17.6 18.2 18.9 19.9 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.6 109.5 110.4 111.2 112.9 114.4 116.1 117.8 119.4 120.7 121.7 122.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 9 13 12 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -8. -13. -18. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 8. 10. 4. 3. 2. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 12. 9. -5. -16. -27. -41. -52. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/02/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/02/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##