* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/02/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 48 55 57 60 63 66 67 67 65 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 48 55 48 51 55 58 59 58 56 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 42 45 51 46 49 53 59 66 73 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 10 10 16 16 18 19 14 6 12 9 13 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 -1 2 -4 -1 0 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 316 324 301 296 291 235 266 240 305 137 119 121 82 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.8 29.8 29.1 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 151 151 149 149 152 154 159 166 165 154 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 150 148 147 145 143 145 146 148 150 147 137 129 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -51.3 -51.4 -50.3 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 12 10 700-500 MB RH 53 53 55 55 57 54 57 58 57 57 50 53 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 9 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 20 20 10 7 27 16 21 -10 -24 -48 -25 -3 200 MB DIV 24 29 34 33 30 63 2 15 -12 -3 -1 10 10 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -4 -1 1 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 -3 1 1 LAND (KM) 371 271 211 157 126 36 8 61 227 333 146 138 249 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.7 18.9 20.9 23.1 25.0 26.1 28.2 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 63.7 64.9 66.1 67.3 68.4 70.9 72.8 74.3 75.6 77.0 78.7 79.1 78.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 10 9 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 81 77 74 75 82 84 67 62 63 85 23 39 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 20. 22. 25. 28. 31. 32. 32. 30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/02/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/02/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/02/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)