* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/02/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 89 91 95 95 89 76 62 50 35 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 80 84 89 91 95 95 89 76 62 50 35 22 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 84 87 89 90 88 82 71 59 48 39 32 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 15 19 17 14 13 13 14 12 9 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -5 -3 6 4 2 2 1 1 5 0 SHEAR DIR 65 86 68 73 43 44 56 41 88 101 124 143 194 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.3 26.1 24.4 23.7 23.0 22.6 22.0 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 144 142 141 137 125 107 99 92 87 81 79 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -49.7 -50.4 -49.5 -50.8 -50.4 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 75 72 72 75 73 73 69 72 69 69 69 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 24 26 26 28 30 29 26 22 22 19 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 31 30 23 25 31 42 39 47 39 28 10 18 16 200 MB DIV 78 82 83 27 20 -1 5 40 8 32 4 18 6 700-850 TADV -11 -10 -13 -12 -14 -8 -14 -13 -3 0 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 751 788 839 898 911 928 997 1074 1168 1274 1313 1387 1514 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.2 16.0 16.8 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.7 20.5 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 110.0 111.0 112.0 113.0 115.0 117.0 119.1 121.1 122.9 124.4 126.1 128.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 17 15 17 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 420 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -10. -16. -22. -27. -32. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 3. -2. -2. -7. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 11. 15. 15. 9. -3. -18. -30. -45. -58. -68. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/02/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/02/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##