* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/02/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 53 58 63 68 72 76 79 81 77 73 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 53 58 50 54 57 61 64 67 63 58 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 47 50 54 48 49 53 58 66 75 81 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 13 16 13 16 8 12 5 5 7 15 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 0 4 3 4 -3 0 0 4 -5 4 SHEAR DIR 349 298 312 282 294 262 234 261 43 25 59 35 50 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.3 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 151 150 149 150 156 157 162 167 157 148 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 146 145 145 146 148 145 149 152 139 127 124 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -50.8 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 13 700-500 MB RH 56 58 59 61 56 54 56 53 53 52 53 56 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 13 13 14 13 14 15 15 16 18 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 26 24 17 12 15 22 39 25 -8 -30 -6 -41 -17 200 MB DIV 34 55 60 58 58 30 64 13 25 19 24 13 14 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 3 8 -1 9 2 1 -2 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 291 233 196 166 128 -21 15 88 228 262 101 175 297 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.7 17.1 18.3 20.0 21.8 23.6 25.5 27.7 29.5 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 64.8 66.1 67.3 68.3 69.3 71.8 74.1 75.5 76.5 77.6 79.3 79.2 77.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 12 14 12 11 11 12 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 77 77 83 88 96 88 79 76 77 69 56 37 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 37. 33. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/02/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 84.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/02/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/02/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)