* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/02/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 100 103 101 102 94 83 70 56 42 31 20 V (KT) LAND 90 95 100 103 101 102 94 83 70 56 42 31 20 V (KT) LGE mod 90 95 98 99 98 93 83 71 59 50 42 35 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 17 14 15 11 12 9 8 7 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -5 -2 2 0 1 0 0 6 1 4 SHEAR DIR 58 63 81 37 26 58 59 62 50 83 94 159 249 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 26.7 25.2 24.3 23.7 23.3 22.5 22.3 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 142 140 131 115 106 100 95 87 84 84 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -50.3 -50.2 -50.0 -49.9 -50.4 -50.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 71 73 73 73 73 71 72 70 69 68 64 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 28 29 30 26 31 28 27 24 21 19 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 30 25 29 36 40 42 45 39 20 22 17 26 17 200 MB DIV 66 76 53 34 21 -12 26 13 0 18 5 7 -3 700-850 TADV -12 -12 -14 -14 -17 -17 -17 -8 -5 0 3 3 3 LAND (KM) 808 862 926 931 937 1000 1101 1197 1327 1420 1500 1618 1756 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.7 20.2 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 111.2 112.2 113.3 114.3 116.5 118.7 120.8 123.0 125.0 126.8 128.6 130.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 26 25 25 24 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -11. -18. -26. -32. -38. -43. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 3. 10. 8. 6. 3. 0. -4. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 11. 12. 4. -7. -20. -34. -48. -59. -70. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/02/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/02/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##