* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/03/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 59 63 65 67 71 73 74 72 71 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 59 40 46 49 52 54 55 54 52 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 53 56 57 40 45 48 52 59 68 75 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 15 18 14 18 19 14 12 3 1 11 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 5 -1 3 1 -4 0 1 -6 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 285 291 288 287 271 282 251 303 202 323 352 354 346 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.7 29.5 28.7 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 150 148 147 150 153 159 164 161 147 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 145 143 141 140 144 144 145 147 146 129 123 122 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.1 -50.6 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 12 10 10 11 11 12 10 13 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 55 58 55 59 56 59 57 64 69 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 12 11 12 11 12 13 13 15 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 21 9 1 7 12 -1 6 -22 -14 -35 -12 -19 2 200 MB DIV 59 53 43 59 55 40 58 -12 24 22 17 27 49 700-850 TADV -1 -4 0 8 8 10 -3 -5 2 -5 4 6 28 LAND (KM) 220 159 137 71 36 -20 183 285 332 218 246 224 185 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.0 19.6 21.9 23.6 24.9 26.9 29.6 31.5 32.9 LONG(DEG W) 66.2 67.2 68.1 69.0 69.8 71.7 73.7 75.4 76.9 77.9 78.4 77.9 76.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 11 13 13 10 10 13 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 76 74 81 82 87 71 67 58 88 14 36 40 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 18. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 26. 28. 29. 27. 26. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/03/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 80.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/03/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/03/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)