* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/03/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 98 99 97 97 87 76 67 52 39 28 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 95 98 99 97 97 87 76 67 52 39 28 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 99 100 99 97 89 76 64 53 44 37 30 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 14 18 13 11 8 12 11 6 8 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -2 1 2 3 -1 0 1 6 3 4 SHEAR DIR 50 66 30 38 50 65 40 57 76 90 165 237 214 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.1 25.8 24.4 23.8 23.4 22.9 22.4 22.2 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 140 135 122 107 100 96 91 86 83 81 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -50.9 -50.3 -50.1 -50.1 -49.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.8 -50.9 -51.4 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 72 74 74 72 73 71 71 73 70 66 59 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 30 31 29 31 29 26 26 22 19 17 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 17 20 26 36 36 42 44 29 13 -2 6 7 12 200 MB DIV 64 39 16 10 -13 8 26 -5 7 5 -3 -4 -14 700-850 TADV -12 -16 -14 -21 -11 -14 -12 -8 -1 0 3 0 2 LAND (KM) 856 925 927 938 965 1066 1138 1256 1367 1457 1571 1696 1815 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.5 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.2 112.3 113.4 114.5 115.6 117.8 119.9 122.0 123.9 125.9 127.9 129.7 131.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 24 23 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -17. -26. -34. -41. -46. -52. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. -3. -3. -8. -13. -15. -17. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 2. 2. -8. -18. -28. -43. -56. -67. -78. -92. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/03/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/03/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##