* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972011 08/03/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 45 53 61 66 67 69 70 72 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 45 53 61 66 67 69 70 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 39 41 44 46 48 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 6 7 10 11 10 9 8 12 12 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 6 5 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 32 49 33 42 52 88 89 84 75 76 97 90 76 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.6 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 157 158 155 150 146 144 141 140 140 136 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.3 -53.0 -52.1 -52.8 -52.0 -52.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 8 9 7 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 77 74 73 70 73 71 73 75 73 74 69 66 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 11 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -23 -28 -32 -28 -28 -29 -29 -13 -6 5 12 27 200 MB DIV 67 51 47 41 56 33 52 42 72 47 69 26 47 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 1 0 3 3 6 3 9 5 7 2 LAND (KM) 222 214 208 216 240 283 344 410 525 677 848 943 1080 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 96.3 97.2 98.0 98.9 99.8 101.7 103.6 105.6 107.7 109.9 112.0 114.4 116.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 33 12 10 27 33 36 12 29 19 16 16 24 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 20. 28. 36. 41. 42. 44. 45. 47. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972011 INVEST 08/03/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 5.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972011 INVEST 08/03/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##