* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/03/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 52 55 57 58 63 66 69 69 67 65 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 52 40 43 44 49 52 55 55 53 51 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 50 39 40 42 45 51 57 64 70 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 14 19 18 13 14 7 7 3 10 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 5 -1 2 0 -5 1 0 -1 -4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 291 285 281 253 260 267 266 67 119 93 8 360 334 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 148 150 153 158 165 160 151 146 148 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 145 144 144 144 147 152 143 130 125 127 121 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 -51.0 -50.6 -50.0 -49.8 -49.7 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 9 11 10 700-500 MB RH 58 60 55 54 52 55 53 54 52 60 64 67 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 13 10 13 13 15 15 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 13 9 18 14 2 1 11 -4 -9 1 -16 12 27 200 MB DIV 56 59 79 53 42 36 -12 0 13 44 22 12 30 700-850 TADV -3 1 5 6 0 4 -4 1 -3 -2 9 11 14 LAND (KM) 190 140 108 0 -73 99 190 317 189 185 278 272 169 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.9 17.4 18.3 19.1 20.9 22.7 24.7 26.8 28.6 30.0 31.7 33.8 LONG(DEG W) 67.5 68.5 69.5 70.6 71.7 73.7 75.3 76.8 78.2 78.7 78.3 77.0 75.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 13 12 12 12 10 8 9 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 82 87 92 73 80 69 69 89 28 42 38 40 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 22. 20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/03/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 82.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/03/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/03/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)