* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/03/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 102 101 97 86 72 60 45 32 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 102 102 101 97 86 72 60 45 32 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 101 100 98 94 82 69 58 49 41 34 28 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 18 13 16 11 8 7 7 4 9 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 9 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 48 52 46 53 53 47 55 75 125 167 181 233 238 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.3 24.6 23.9 23.3 23.0 22.4 22.2 22.0 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 139 135 127 109 102 95 92 85 83 81 80 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -50.2 -50.3 -50.4 -50.0 -49.9 -50.4 -50.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 74 75 72 71 70 70 69 66 65 63 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 31 30 30 31 28 25 24 20 18 17 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 13 21 33 36 36 46 37 23 10 6 20 10 18 200 MB DIV 45 30 17 -32 -18 39 27 -9 13 -2 13 4 -10 700-850 TADV -20 -16 -19 -9 -18 -18 -9 -1 0 2 3 2 6 LAND (KM) 913 908 919 946 989 1085 1182 1310 1419 1526 1614 1719 1835 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.5 114.5 115.7 116.8 119.0 121.0 123.1 125.3 127.2 128.7 130.2 131.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 11 10 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 21 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -14. -24. -34. -43. -50. -56. -61. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -5. -7. -11. -14. -15. -19. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -3. -14. -28. -40. -55. -68. -80. -92.-102. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/03/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/03/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##