* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972011 08/03/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 37 44 50 53 53 51 50 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 37 44 50 53 53 51 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 36 38 39 40 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 11 12 9 9 8 13 17 14 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 3 3 1 2 0 0 -4 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 62 51 51 47 53 92 59 91 73 71 87 85 103 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.2 27.7 27.4 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 155 155 156 155 147 141 138 133 133 133 126 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 76 73 71 75 73 71 74 74 74 71 67 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -27 -31 -24 -18 -28 -25 -19 1 4 22 18 31 200 MB DIV 46 34 38 60 58 23 56 41 64 33 31 10 20 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 1 2 6 5 5 1 2 2 4 2 LAND (KM) 242 250 262 277 293 305 315 388 467 599 666 785 974 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 9 10 11 9 9 9 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 12 13 18 23 14 8 15 8 4 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 30. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 19. 25. 28. 28. 26. 25. 23. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972011 INVEST 08/03/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972011 INVEST 08/03/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##