* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/03/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 48 51 53 59 62 68 68 67 64 V (KT) LAND 45 46 42 37 34 41 43 49 52 58 58 57 53 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 37 34 39 40 44 50 57 64 69 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 16 18 19 13 14 3 6 9 7 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 0 1 3 0 -4 1 -1 -4 -1 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 287 261 238 246 267 248 304 172 13 44 29 358 11 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.8 29.4 28.8 28.6 28.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 151 152 156 163 166 158 148 145 146 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 145 145 145 147 151 150 139 127 125 129 117 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.3 -50.3 -49.9 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 11 11 10 11 11 10 11 10 12 8 700-500 MB RH 60 56 55 55 55 59 55 58 56 62 63 65 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 12 11 12 12 16 16 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 17 27 31 17 10 35 9 10 -19 -6 -24 -3 14 200 MB DIV 49 63 57 63 18 31 -11 14 10 28 31 35 6 700-850 TADV 0 8 4 0 0 -1 0 2 -3 6 -1 27 13 LAND (KM) 168 109 0 -42 -11 86 209 254 161 196 278 257 364 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.9 19.8 21.4 23.4 25.4 27.3 29.1 30.7 32.4 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 68.9 70.0 71.1 72.1 73.0 74.8 76.5 77.7 78.5 78.7 78.3 76.0 72.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 9 9 10 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 99 95 86 74 35 73 61 53 14 38 37 25 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 18. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 14. 17. 23. 23. 22. 19. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/03/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/03/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/03/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)