* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/03/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 107 105 102 96 81 67 48 34 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 107 105 102 96 81 67 48 34 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 106 103 98 91 76 63 52 43 36 30 25 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 15 18 19 18 13 8 9 4 6 11 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 -2 1 0 0 2 5 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 38 36 57 56 52 50 72 92 139 156 224 227 235 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.2 25.3 24.1 23.6 23.1 22.4 22.2 22.1 22.0 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 134 126 117 104 99 94 86 83 81 80 79 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.4 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -49.8 -50.5 -50.4 -50.9 -51.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 75 73 70 72 71 71 68 67 62 59 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 33 31 31 30 28 26 21 19 18 15 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 20 32 33 35 34 37 18 4 -5 -3 -9 2 6 200 MB DIV 31 28 -36 -24 -2 48 11 6 17 11 -1 -1 -5 700-850 TADV -16 -17 -11 -21 -20 -16 -4 0 0 1 3 2 2 LAND (KM) 900 917 952 1009 1061 1151 1286 1390 1501 1614 1726 1809 1848 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.7 18.3 19.1 19.8 20.4 20.6 21.1 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.7 115.8 117.0 118.2 120.4 122.6 124.8 126.9 128.7 130.1 131.3 132.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 9 8 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 17 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -20. -31. -42. -52. -59. -65. -70. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -5. -2. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -12. -14. -15. -20. -22. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 0. -3. -9. -24. -38. -57. -71. -83. -98.-110.-121. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/03/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/03/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##