* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972011 08/03/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 46 52 53 52 51 51 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 46 52 53 52 51 51 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 35 38 40 40 39 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 13 12 10 9 10 16 15 20 15 15 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 1 4 4 1 -1 -2 -4 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 71 73 71 75 94 66 54 69 79 75 88 95 96 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 28.8 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 158 158 153 142 137 131 129 130 130 124 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 8 8 11 8 10 8 7 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 73 70 74 75 72 74 74 69 70 65 64 59 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -29 -22 -15 -18 -13 -13 7 17 28 36 36 29 200 MB DIV 31 19 40 48 22 23 13 50 9 27 0 8 0 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 2 6 2 4 0 3 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 235 227 234 236 238 259 282 355 469 613 635 727 852 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 9 9 9 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 23 38 42 32 8 13 8 2 3 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 21. 27. 28. 27. 26. 26. 25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972011 INVEST 08/03/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972011 INVEST 08/03/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##