* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/03/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 48 50 56 61 66 68 72 66 61 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 46 47 47 53 57 63 65 69 63 58 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 46 46 45 48 53 62 69 75 77 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 15 16 17 16 4 5 9 6 6 23 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 9 0 -3 -1 -3 2 -1 2 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 267 252 266 266 269 275 12 2 87 44 354 3 360 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.5 28.8 28.6 28.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 151 153 156 159 164 168 160 149 147 140 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 142 145 148 151 150 150 151 141 130 130 125 113 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.2 -50.9 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 -50.3 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 12 11 10 700-500 MB RH 61 56 56 56 57 54 56 56 57 63 66 63 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 11 13 13 16 15 18 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 35 42 35 32 41 35 14 4 4 -29 2 -5 22 200 MB DIV 59 62 60 54 42 8 2 10 28 23 38 18 17 700-850 TADV 5 2 1 15 12 -3 -2 -5 -1 9 6 15 26 LAND (KM) 146 34 28 42 43 76 201 183 67 148 260 277 556 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.8 19.7 21.8 23.7 25.5 27.3 29.2 31.3 33.1 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 70.3 71.2 72.1 73.2 74.2 76.0 77.2 78.4 79.5 79.3 77.6 74.3 69.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 12 13 13 12 11 10 10 11 14 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 94 86 90 62 81 76 66 3 61 41 44 18 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 1. 0. 2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 16. 21. 23. 27. 21. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/03/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 82.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/03/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/03/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)