* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/03/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 112 104 96 76 60 41 28 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 115 112 104 96 76 60 41 28 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 115 109 101 92 75 61 50 41 34 28 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 13 13 11 9 9 9 4 8 11 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 0 2 1 -2 -1 3 2 1 3 6 SHEAR DIR 23 70 52 40 31 80 76 103 106 175 229 227 229 SST (C) 27.4 27.0 26.3 25.5 24.7 23.9 23.4 22.9 22.4 22.1 22.0 22.1 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 134 127 119 110 102 97 92 86 82 80 81 81 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -50.2 -50.0 -50.5 -50.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 73 70 72 69 69 68 67 63 59 52 47 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 30 31 29 28 25 24 20 19 17 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 37 40 40 35 42 30 17 0 -3 11 9 23 7 200 MB DIV 22 -23 -25 -12 14 28 4 8 -5 0 2 0 5 700-850 TADV -15 -11 -20 -17 -19 -10 -3 0 1 3 4 2 3 LAND (KM) 935 971 1020 1069 1107 1214 1347 1449 1571 1700 1814 1902 1963 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.9 117.0 118.1 119.2 121.4 123.6 125.8 127.9 129.8 131.3 132.5 133.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -10. -16. -29. -42. -54. -64. -72. -77. -82. -87. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -15. -16. -18. -23. -25. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -11. -19. -39. -55. -74. -87.-100.-114.-124.-134. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/03/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/03/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##