* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972011 08/03/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 35 43 45 48 47 47 47 48 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 35 43 45 48 47 47 47 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 30 32 34 34 34 34 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 14 11 8 10 10 16 15 15 14 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 4 2 0 0 -2 0 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 66 63 79 87 77 47 65 76 65 85 89 109 106 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.3 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.6 26.8 26.6 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 158 157 148 141 135 130 129 131 129 122 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 9 9 9 8 8 6 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 72 75 75 73 71 75 73 72 67 66 61 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -23 -14 -20 -24 -16 -10 16 19 37 36 41 39 200 MB DIV 9 38 46 42 25 37 36 40 14 31 15 1 5 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 4 5 3 4 3 2 1 3 1 4 LAND (KM) 228 232 240 244 249 256 330 390 513 610 667 761 889 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 11 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 23 33 40 43 25 7 9 9 2 4 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 18. 20. 23. 22. 22. 22. 23. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972011 INVEST 08/03/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972011 INVEST 08/03/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##