* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/04/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 50 52 56 59 60 62 63 63 61 59 V (KT) LAND 45 47 41 47 49 53 56 57 59 59 59 58 56 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 40 45 46 48 51 55 61 66 69 71 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 13 15 15 8 16 9 18 16 14 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 6 10 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 254 277 273 273 278 336 321 360 16 34 9 15 4 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.1 27.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 151 155 156 157 162 162 155 148 140 128 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 145 150 149 145 147 143 135 131 123 111 107 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 11 10 9 10 10 11 11 13 11 11 700-500 MB RH 60 59 62 62 64 62 65 64 68 67 68 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 33 30 29 23 -8 -18 -57 -37 -51 -6 6 24 200 MB DIV 63 62 71 68 56 -15 14 0 26 10 40 12 23 700-850 TADV 3 12 6 8 1 -7 -9 -9 0 -11 16 8 9 LAND (KM) 107 5 -17 27 34 148 325 305 243 365 333 436 698 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.5 20.5 22.4 24.5 26.2 27.8 29.7 32.2 33.6 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 70.7 71.5 72.3 73.3 74.2 75.7 76.3 77.1 77.8 77.1 74.7 71.7 68.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 14 13 11 10 9 9 13 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 89 85 31 87 44 63 81 52 39 27 23 14 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 15. 17. 18. 18. 16. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/04/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/04/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/04/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)