* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/04/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 107 98 90 71 55 40 28 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 113 107 98 90 71 55 40 28 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 112 105 95 85 70 57 48 40 33 28 23 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 15 16 15 10 6 1 6 12 16 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 2 -1 0 -2 0 2 6 0 3 0 6 SHEAR DIR 28 74 47 35 46 52 90 155 172 230 215 236 233 SST (C) 27.0 26.4 25.5 24.7 24.3 23.7 23.4 22.8 22.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 128 119 111 106 100 97 90 85 81 80 79 79 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.7 -50.9 -50.5 -50.3 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 66 74 68 70 70 67 62 62 54 50 48 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 31 29 28 28 26 23 19 18 16 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 32 24 34 40 39 26 6 -8 0 19 23 20 13 200 MB DIV -18 -41 -20 8 25 6 35 6 -7 8 -1 -4 -9 700-850 TADV -13 -14 -22 -24 -21 -9 0 -2 0 -1 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 969 1021 1073 1118 1174 1318 1444 1562 1679 1792 1884 1921 1977 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.5 18.2 18.7 19.4 20.2 20.9 21.5 21.8 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 115.8 117.0 118.1 119.3 120.5 122.9 125.1 127.3 129.3 131.0 132.5 133.5 134.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 8 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -19. -33. -45. -57. -67. -74. -80. -84. -89. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -12. -14. -16. -20. -22. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -8. -17. -25. -44. -60. -75. -87. -99.-111.-123.-134. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/04/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/04/11 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##